Demo Bank Ghana (illustrative) · forward-looking transition risk for the book's financed emissions under the NGFS scenarios, the financed-carbon cost at each, and alignment to a science-based 1.5°C target — the transition half of IFRS S2 / TCFD scenario analysis. A screening-grade estimate, not a forecast.
Each NGFS scenario decarbonises the book differently; the dashed line is the 1.5°C target.
Worst-case financed-carbon cost by horizon — financed emissions valued at the scenario carbon price.
On a business-as-usual path the book finances 1,223 tCO₂e in 2030 against a 1.5°C budget of 947 tCO₂e — a gap of 276 tCO₂e (+29.1%).
| Scenario — financed carbon cost (GHS) | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● Current Policies Hot house world | 117,416 | 148,209 | 177,851 | 215,838 |
| ● Delayed Transition Disorderly | 493,550 | 2,072,045 | 2,374,218 | 1,295,028 |
| ● Below 2°C Orderly (<2°C) | 733,849 | 1,107,968 | 1,272,005 | 899,325 |
| ● Net Zero 2050 Orderly (1.5°C) | 1,243,227 | 1,820,234 | 1,913,764 | 791,406 |
Methodology: Carbon prices and decarbonisation pathways are ILLUSTRATIVE NGFS Phase IV reference figures (US$/tCO2e, converted at US$1≈GHS12); anchor years 2025/2030/2035/2040/2050 linearly interpolated. Calibrate to the NGFS data portal for the reporting vintage. The carbon cost is the book's financed emissions valued at the scenario price — a transition-exposure proxy, NOT a modelled credit loss.