A portfolio-scale physical-climate risk screen for a Ghanaian lender — every asset pinned and scored across flood, coastal, heat, riparian, land and drought hazards, ranked by vulnerability, concentrated geographically, and translated into a collateral-haircut and climate-ECL overlay with scenario horizons — structured for the Bank of Ghana Climate-Related Financial Risk Directive, the Ghana Sustainable Banking Principles and IFRS S2 / TCFD.
⚑ Wholly synthetic demonstration portfolio — fictitious asset IDs, addresses, loan exposures and LTVs across realistic Ghanaian localities. No real bank, borrower or property is represented. Hazards are screening-grade estimates. For a live engagement, the bank's anonymised property book is ingested and screened on the same engine.
This report screens Residential & commercial mortgage book — synthetic demo (200 assets) for Demo Bank Ghana (illustrative) against physical-climate & environmental hazards, ranks every asset by vulnerability, maps the geographic concentration of risk, and translates the exposure into a collateral-haircut and climate-adjusted Expected-Credit-Loss (ECL) overlay — structured as evidence for the Bank of Ghana Climate-Related Financial Risk Directive and IFRS S2 / TCFD.
○ Screening data: seed location model — instant, zero-load default. Run a live screen (SafeGround + FloodGuard) for engine-backed flood, riparian, coastal and land layers.
Vulnerability is a weighted composite of flood, coastal, heat, riparian, land and drought hazards (weights in §Methodology). Bands: Low <25, Moderate 25–50, High 50–75, Critical ≥75 (of 100).
200 assets pinned by vulnerability band. Low Moderate High Critical · switch to Satellite/Hybrid (top-right) to see building footprints.
Where the book — and its high-risk exposure — clusters.
| Region / cluster | Assets | Exposure | % High+ risk | High+ exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Accra | 126 | GHS 108.49M | 24% | GHS 25.55M |
| Ashanti | 22 | GHS 17.42M | 24% | GHS 4.11M |
| Western | 14 | GHS 11.59M | 18% | GHS 2.07M |
| Central | 10 | GHS 5.60M | 0% | GHS 0 |
| Northern | 12 | GHS 5.26M | 100% | GHS 5.26M |
| Bono | 8 | GHS 3.71M | 0% | GHS 0 |
| Volta | 8 | GHS 3.04M | 100% | GHS 3.04M |
Number of assets at High or Critical for each hazard.
Each asset's vulnerability is mapped to a collateral haircut, a stressed LTV, the uncovered exposure after a stressed forced sale, and a climate increment on Expected Credit Loss (ECL = PD × LGD × EAD). Totals: GHS 12.50M potential collateral shortfall · GHS 180k aggregate climate ECL uplift.
⚠ Figures use illustrative PD/LGD parameters, a forced-sale factor and band-based haircuts (see §Methodology & the gap register). They are a triage signal for the credit team — not a valuation or the bank's ECL model.
| Asset | Locality | Band | Exposure | LTV | Haircut | Stressed LTV | Shortfall | ECL uplift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GH-MORT-0027 | East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential | High | GHS 2.11M | 76% | 18% | 92% | GHS 396k | GHS 10k |
| GH-MORT-0033 | East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential | Moderate | GHS 2.56M | 57% | 6% | 60% | GHS 0 | GHS 0 |
| GH-MORT-0016 | Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) | High | GHS 1.59M | 75% | 18% | 92% | GHS 292k | GHS 7k |
| GH-MORT-0032 | East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential | Moderate | GHS 2.32M | 61% | 6% | 65% | GHS 0 | GHS 0 |
| GH-MORT-0010 | Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) | High | GHS 1.44M | 79% | 18% | 97% | GHS 325k | GHS 7k |
| GH-MORT-0025 | East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential | Moderate | GHS 2.36M | 84% | 6% | 90% | GHS 386k | GHS 3k |
| GH-MORT-0141 | Sekondi-Takoradi (coastal) | High | GHS 1.47M | 72% | 18% | 88% | GHS 211k | GHS 5k |
| GH-MORT-0019 | Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) | High | GHS 1.32M | 82% | 18% | 101% | GHS 336k | GHS 6k |
| GH-MORT-0098 | Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) | High | GHS 1.64M | 60% | 18% | 73% | GHS 0 | GHS 0 |
| GH-MORT-0007 | Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) | High | GHS 1.19M | 79% | 18% | 96% | GHS 260k | GHS 5k |
| GH-MORT-0058 | Tema community | Moderate | GHS 1.87M | 84% | 6% | 89% | GHS 299k | GHS 2k |
| GH-MORT-0120 | Kumasi (Asokwa, Subin, Ahodwo) | Moderate | GHS 1.75M | 61% | 6% | 65% | GHS 0 | GHS 0 |
Top 12 by exposure × vulnerability. Full per-asset detail is in the CSV export.
How the share of exposure at High+ risk migrates over time under NGFS Current Policies (hot-house world). Screening estimate (illustrative horizon multipliers), not a downscaled climate forecast — see the gap register.
| Horizon | % exposure High+ | High+ exposure | Critical assets | Climate ECL uplift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 26% | GHS 40.03M | 1 | GHS 180k |
| 2030 | 51% | GHS 78.99M | 25 | GHS 381k |
| 2050 | 67% | GHS 103.37M | 34 | GHS 475k |
Top 30 by exposure × vulnerability, with hazard fingerprint, data-confidence flag and the priority action. Hazard chips: Flood Coastal / sea-level Extreme heat Riparian proximity Land / contamination Drought / water stress.
| Asset | Property | Vuln. | Hazards | Conf. | Exposure | Priority action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GH-MORT-0027 | Plot 366, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Mixed-use · Greater Accra |
High 60 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.11M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0033 | Plot 335, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Residential · Greater Accra |
Moderate 46 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.56M | Sits within a watercourse / riparian buffer: confirm building permit and buffer compliance; heightened pluvial & legal-setback risk. |
| GH-MORT-0016 | Plot 47, Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) Residential · Greater Accra |
High 74 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.59M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0032 | Plot 50, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Commercial · Greater Accra |
Moderate 46 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.32M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0010 | Plot 312, Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) Residential · Greater Accra |
High 70 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.44M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0025 | Plot 273, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Apartment · Greater Accra |
Moderate 41 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.36M | Some pluvial-flood exposure: confirm plot drainage and gutter connection; flag for flood-cover at renewal. |
| GH-MORT-0141 | Plot 61, Sekondi-Takoradi (coastal) Industrial · Western |
High 65 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.47M | Coastal erosion / sea-level exposure: obtain shoreline-setback confirmation and a coastal-defence statement; treat as elevated collateral risk on long-tenor loans. |
| GH-MORT-0019 | Plot 394, Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) Residential · Greater Accra |
High 71 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.32M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0098 | Plot 160, Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) Apartment · Greater Accra |
High 54 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.64M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0007 | Plot 442, Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) Commercial · Greater Accra |
High 73 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.19M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0058 | Plot 410, Tema community Residential · Greater Accra |
Moderate 46 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.87M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0120 | Plot 128, Kumasi (Asokwa, Subin, Ahodwo) Commercial · Ashanti |
Moderate 49 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.75M | Extreme-heat exposure: building habitability/operating-cost risk — recommend passive-cooling / cool-roof / shading retrofit (green-loan candidate). |
| GH-MORT-0012 | Plot 118, Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) Commercial · Greater Accra |
High 69 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.22M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0092 | Plot 134, Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) Apartment · Greater Accra |
Moderate 43 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.92M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0087 | Plot 4, Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) Commercial · Greater Accra |
Moderate 49 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.60M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0123 | Plot 109, Kumasi (Asokwa, Subin, Ahodwo) Commercial · Ashanti |
Moderate 45 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.74M | Extreme-heat exposure: building habitability/operating-cost risk — recommend passive-cooling / cool-roof / shading retrofit (green-loan candidate). |
| GH-MORT-0052 | Plot 325, Tema community Residential · Greater Accra |
Moderate 42 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.80M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0056 | Plot 461, Tema community Industrial · Greater Accra |
High 51 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.48M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0088 | Plot 276, Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) Residential · Greater Accra |
Moderate 37 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.01M | Some pluvial-flood exposure: confirm plot drainage and gutter connection; flag for flood-cover at renewal. |
| GH-MORT-0044 | Plot 479, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Residential · Greater Accra |
Moderate 50 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.49M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0090 | Plot 431, Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) Apartment · Greater Accra |
Moderate 43 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.70M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0004 | Plot 217, Accra Central / Odaw (Kaneshie, Circle, Avenor) Mixed-use · Greater Accra |
High 70 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.04M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0053 | Plot 135, Tema community Residential · Greater Accra |
Moderate 48 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.41M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0100 | Plot 357, Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) Apartment · Greater Accra |
Moderate 38 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.80M | Some pluvial-flood exposure: confirm plot drainage and gutter connection; flag for flood-cover at renewal. |
| GH-MORT-0128 | Plot 423, Kumasi (Asokwa, Subin, Ahodwo) Residential · Ashanti |
High 51 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.31M | Extreme-heat exposure: building habitability/operating-cost risk — recommend passive-cooling / cool-roof / shading retrofit (green-loan candidate). |
| GH-MORT-0097 | Plot 86, Spintex / Sakumono (lagoon edge) Residential · Greater Accra |
Moderate 48 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.40M | Flood exposure: require finished-floor elevation / flood-proofing evidence and confirm building-level flood insurance before further drawdown; candidate for a green-retrofit loan (drainage, raised plinth, sump). |
| GH-MORT-0030 | Plot 37, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Residential · Greater Accra |
Low 24 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.75M | Moderate thermal stress: note cooling-cost sensitivity. |
| GH-MORT-0043 | Plot 297, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Residential · Greater Accra |
Low 23 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.92M | Moderate thermal stress: note cooling-cost sensitivity. |
| GH-MORT-0148 | Plot 163, Sekondi-Takoradi (coastal) Residential · Western |
Moderate 48 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 1.33M | Coastal erosion / sea-level exposure: obtain shoreline-setback confirmation and a coastal-defence statement; treat as elevated collateral risk on long-tenor loans. |
| GH-MORT-0037 | Plot 249, East Legon / Cantonments / Airport Residential Mixed-use · Greater Accra |
Moderate 25 | FlCoExRiLaDr | ◆ Medium | GHS 2.50M | Moderate thermal stress: note cooling-cost sensitivity. |
How this screen maps to the frameworks a Ghanaian bank must satisfy. Needs bank data / sign-off marks requirements that depend on the bank's own governance, models or disclosure — see the gap register (§8).
| Ref | Requirement | Topic | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governance | Board & senior-management oversight of climate-related financial risk | Governance | Needs bank data / sign-off | Bank governance |
| Risk Mgmt | Identify & assess climate physical-risk exposures across the portfolio | Risk management | Addressed (screening) | Portfolio screen |
| Risk Mgmt | Climate risk integrated into credit risk management & ECL | Risk management | Partial | Finance overlay (ECL) |
| Scenario | Forward-looking climate scenario analysis / stress testing | Scenario | Partial | Scenario projection |
| Disclosure | Disclosure of climate-related risks & portfolio exposure | Disclosure | Addressed (screening) | Portfolio report |
| Data | Data & methodology for climate-risk measurement, with quality flags | Data | Addressed (screening) | Confidence flags |
| Ref | Requirement | Topic | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Environmental & social risk management in business decisions | E&S risk | Addressed (screening) | Portfolio screen |
| P2 | Manage the bank's own E&S footprint | Footprint | Needs bank data / sign-off | Bank operations |
| P3 | Protect human rights & vulnerable groups in lending | Social | Partial | Land / community screen |
| P5 | Promote green / climate-resilient finance & resource efficiency | Green finance | Addressed (screening) | Green-loan recommendations |
| P7 | Report & disclose sustainability performance | Reporting | Addressed (screening) | Portfolio report |
| Ref | Requirement | Topic | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governance | Governance of climate-related risks & opportunities | Governance | Needs bank data / sign-off | Bank governance |
| Strategy | Physical-risk exposure of the lending book & its financial effects | Strategy | Addressed (screening) | Portfolio screen + finance overlay |
| Risk Mgmt | Processes to identify, assess & manage climate risk | Risk management | Partial | Portfolio screen |
| Metrics | Climate metrics: % of exposure at high physical risk; climate ECL | Metrics & targets | Addressed (screening) | Portfolio metrics |
| Resilience | Climate resilience under multiple scenarios / horizons | Strategy | Partial | Scenario projection |
| Ref | Requirement | Topic | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical | Acute & chronic physical-risk assessment under NGFS pathways | Physical risk | Partial | Scenario projection |
| Horizons | Short / medium / long horizon (2030 / 2050) exposure view | Horizons | Addressed (screening) | Scenario projection |
| Transmission | Transmission of physical risk to credit loss | Transmission | Partial | Finance overlay (ECL) |
| Ref | Requirement | Topic | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geocoding | Asset-level location data with quality scoring | Data quality | Addressed (screening) | Confidence flags |
| Coverage | Portfolio coverage & per-asset confidence flags | Data quality | Addressed (screening) | Confidence flags |
| Ref | Requirement | Topic | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scope 3 | Financed-emissions baseline for the real-estate book (cross-sell) | Emissions | Gap | Not yet in scope |
5 of 6 items are reliance-blocking. PortfolioCheck is screening-grade triage that flags collateral for closer review — it complements the bank's credit process; it does not certify it.
| # | Area | What is required | Owner | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G01 | Property valuation | Climate haircuts are applied to an implied collateral value, not a surveyed valuation. The bank's valuation must confirm property values. | Bank credit / valuation | BLOCKING |
| G02 | PD / LGD models | ECL figures use illustrative default PD/LGD parameters. The bank must substitute its own IFRS 9 term-structure and recovery model. | Bank risk modelling | BLOCKING |
| G03 | Building-level resilience | Finished-floor elevation, flood defences and construction quality are not observed; they materially change loss given a hazard. | Survey / site inspection | BLOCKING |
| G04 | Insurance status | Whether each property carries valid flood/peril cover is a key loss mitigant and is not in the book; confirm per asset. | Bank / borrower records | BLOCKING |
| G05 | Governance & disclosure | Board oversight, the bank's own footprint and the formal disclosure statement are governance items this screen cannot produce. | Bank governance | BLOCKING |
| G06 | Scenario calibration | Horizon multipliers are illustrative NGFS-style scalars, not downscaled climate projections; calibrate before external disclosure. | Climate science / consultant | Advisory |
Composite vulnerability = 50% weighted hazard load (Flood 34% · Coastal / sea-level 18% · Extreme heat 16% · Riparian proximity 12% · Land / contamination 10% · Drought / water stress 10%) + 50% of the single worst hazard, so one extreme hazard that can impair the security is not averaged away. Each hazard is scored 0–1 from a Ghana location model (SEED) and, in live mode, overlaid with SafeGround (flood / river / coastal / land) and FloodGuard (flood susceptibility) screens; heat & drought use the seed model. Collateral haircut by band: Low 0% · Moderate 6% · High 18% · Critical 35%. ECL = PD × LGD × EAD with illustrative PD (2% base, +0.5–1.0pt at High/Critical), an LGD derived from realisable collateral at a 0.75 forced-sale factor, and EAD = exposure. All parameters are exposed for recalibration against the bank's own loss experience.
Resilicity screens a bank's anonymised mortgage / property book on Ghana-resolution engines and returns a board- and BoG-Directive-ready report like this — with the collateral, LTV and climate-ECL overlay, scenario horizons and a green-loan origination shortlist. Your loan data can be screened on-premise so it never leaves the bank.
Email minka@resilicity.de